SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Aug 17 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Aug 17 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Aug 24 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,280 Primaries, 17,059 Secondaries (24,698 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
14064 COSMOS 1461 [?] 3.699 7.630E-02 0.018 0.068 5.200
33845 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 4.149 2018 Aug 20 13:53:18.393 2018 Aug 20 13:53:19.354 2018 Aug 20 13:53:20.316
24883 ORBVIEW 2 (SEASTAR) [-] 6.131 8.563E-03 0.070 0.102 14.856
25169 IRIDIUM 52 [+] 5.627 2018 Aug 22 01:38:18.703 2018 Aug 22 01:38:19.040 2018 Aug 22 01:38:19.376
26113 IMAGE [P] 4.730 7.510E-03 1.410 3.073 11.796
28608 EXPLORER 38 DEB [-] 2.396 2018 Aug 17 23:33:00.869 2018 Aug 17 23:33:01.204 2018 Aug 17 23:33:01.538
13923 NOAA 8 [-] 2.114 2.978E-03 0.026 0.098 7.305
34430 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.246 2018 Aug 18 12:42:06.707 2018 Aug 18 12:42:07.391 2018 Aug 18 12:42:08.076
06206 COSMOS 521 [?] 5.273 1.642E-03 0.025 0.103 2.553
20804 COSMOS 2100 [?] 5.035 2018 Aug 21 05:44:57.126 2018 Aug 21 05:44:59.084 2018 Aug 21 05:45:01.042
15427 NOAA 9 [P] 1.657 8.026E-04 0.082 0.116 14.836
08110 SL-3 DEB [-] 1.613 2018 Aug 18 02:08:36.434 2018 Aug 18 02:08:36.771 2018 Aug 18 02:08:37.108
18312 METEOR 2-16 [?] 5.548 7.428E-04 0.105 0.157 14.591
30079 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.121 2018 Aug 22 02:12:15.660 2018 Aug 22 02:12:16.003 2018 Aug 22 02:12:16.345
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 7.507 5.543E-04 0.506 1.386 12.757
35968 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 8.547 2018 Aug 23 14:38:11.379 2018 Aug 23 14:38:11.755 2018 Aug 23 14:38:12.132
25112 ORBCOMM FM08 [+] 6.478 5.490E-04 0.209 0.688 9.965
27386 ENVISAT [-] 6.395 2018 Aug 22 23:35:47.069 2018 Aug 22 23:35:47.566 2018 Aug 22 23:35:48.062
25985 ORBCOMM FM35 [+] 2.617 5.223E-04 0.052 0.113 13.584
42957 IRIDIUM 122 [+] 2.789 2018 Aug 19 02:06:01.677 2018 Aug 19 02:06:02.045 2018 Aug 19 02:06:02.413

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2018 Aug 17 01:24:19 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2018 Aug 17 07:46:25 UTC