SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Feb 20 08:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Feb 20 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Feb 27 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,227 Primaries, 16,766 Secondaries (24,087 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
43063 SOYUZ-MS 07 [+] 0.466 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43211 PROGRESS-MS 08 [+] 0.466 2018 Feb 20 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 20 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 27 00:00:00.000
42937 SOYUZ-MS 06 [+] 0.466 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43211 PROGRESS-MS 08 [+] 0.466 2018 Feb 20 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 20 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 27 00:00:00.000
42971 PROGRESS-MS 07 [+] 0.466 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43211 PROGRESS-MS 08 [+] 0.466 2018 Feb 20 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 20 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 27 00:00:00.000
25170 IRIDIUM 56 [+] 2.039 1.184E-02 0.020 0.037 14.355
35331 CZ-4B DEB [-] 1.863 2018 Feb 21 15:11:58.972 2018 Feb 21 15:11:59.320 2018 Feb 21 15:11:59.669
13301 COSMOS 1383 [-] 4.119 7.256E-03 0.014 0.024 14.260
31904 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 9.554 2018 Feb 23 20:06:49.069 2018 Feb 23 20:06:49.420 2018 Feb 23 20:06:49.770
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
27424 AQUA [+] 1.646 6.974E-03 0.036 0.115 10.415
31481 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.542 2018 Feb 21 13:53:54.118 2018 Feb 21 13:53:54.598 2018 Feb 21 13:53:55.078
15597 COSMOS 1634 [?] 4.554 5.801E-03 0.014 0.051 7.468
42207 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 20.100 2018 Feb 24 08:35:20.351 2018 Feb 24 08:35:21.020 2018 Feb 24 08:35:21.690
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 4.594 3.519E-03 0.096 0.296 10.798
38028 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 5.895 2018 Feb 24 11:40:05.567 2018 Feb 24 11:40:06.029 2018 Feb 24 11:40:06.491
25173 IRIDIUM 53 [+] 4.374 3.008E-03 0.045 0.066 14.899
30207 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.259 2018 Feb 24 04:34:02.215 2018 Feb 24 04:34:02.551 2018 Feb 24 04:34:02.886
05104 ISIS 2 [?] 2.544 2.916E-03 0.234 0.569 12.406
38043 GLOBALSTAR M092 [+] 2.345 2018 Feb 22 06:09:12.998 2018 Feb 22 06:09:13.399 2018 Feb 22 06:09:13.799

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2018 February 20 17:08:25 UTC